Hawaii Housing News

News, Tips and Opinions About Hawaii Real Estate and Housing

West Side Oahu Rising? A Story of Numbers

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green box with random colored numbers

Do you know your numbers?

I love numbers. You know what I love more? Watching people use them incorrectly. Ok, ok, I don’t really love that, but I’m always amused by how numbers can be used misleadingly or inappropriately to tell a story that’s not really there. I used to be in the geography field, and there’s a wonderful book called How to Lie With Maps that illustrates this very same concept.

The October home sale numbers just came out by the Honolulu Board of Realtors. And while the overall message is promising, it’s important to tease out the important data from the statistical noise. For example, the post states that the Ewa and Kapolei area rose 30% from last year (October 2012 vs. October 2011). The rise was specifically the number of recorded sales, from 35 to 46.

So last month there were 11 more recorded sales in that entire region compared to the same month a year before. I’m admittedly not breaking out my statistical z-score formulas right now as it’s now 6:00am and I’ve been up for 2 hours as I’m fighting jet lag having just come home from Thanksgiving in Philadelphia, but that increase of 11 sales, while encouraging, doesn’t seem to be too much beyond statistical noise (random fluctuations). However, it is encouraging.

The flip side? Median prices declined by 4 percent (itself potentially just noise). So what’s more telling to you – more sales or a dropping price point? It’s not a rhetorical question – you likely have different needs or intentions as they relate to real estate and will, therefore, be influenced by different criteria than your neighbors. I’m just illustrating some of the challenges in making sense of data instead of just taking the spin. We gotta be analytical. Take it all in but focus on the numbers that relate more to your objectives, even if they’re counter to current sentiment.

Let’s bounce over to the windward side where in Kailua and Waimanalo, sales rose 85% from 13 to 24. That’s a large percentage increase and is likely indicative of true market uptick, but it’s such a small sample set that you have to at least curb your enthusiasm somewhat. The number to latch onto more is that that the median price for single family homes rose 40%. Even with a small set of only 24, that’s a substantial increase.

Now the report doesn’t mention if distressed properties (short sales and REOs) are included, but I’m assuming they’ve been weeded out. If not, then it’s a giant asterisk of Mark McGwire proportions (baseball fans know what I mean).

I agree that October appears to be a good month and concur with my real estate colleagues that we seem to be entering into healthier times. I just like to be a bit conservative when looking at numbers because they can often incur emotional reaction that clouds judgment and more required analysis.

By the way – if you have a cure for jet lag, then please share below!

Oahu Real Estate Market Rebounding – Don’t Believe the Hype!

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So I just had a quick glance at this brief report on real estate in Hawaii. It basically states that the average median price on sold houses and condos on Oahu climbed from July to August. The jump for SFH (single family homes) was over $40K — that’s quite an increase. Of course, it follows that someone is quoted in the article as saying that the increase in median price is a sign of a strengthening market.

I think it’s extremely premature to come to that conclusion. Anyone who has a basic understanding of statistics can tell you that a one-month spike of over $40K can at least partly, if not largely, be attributed to the decrease in the number of homes sold (each home sold then contributes a larger percentage to the change). Maybe a few more higher-end / luxury homes sold that month than normal which account for the climb by skewing the numbers. I know for certain that a few expensive homes sold in Hawaii Kai – that would most definitely bring up the average. Further inquiry would need to be done before coming to a clear conclusion. Forty thousand in one month seems to be more of an anomaly to me than a sign of a rebounding market.

I may be more conservative than other folks, but I believe in looking at the bigger picture. The real estate market on Oahu may indeed be somewhat of a different landscape from that of the mainland, but we are in the same “system” nonetheless. We still have problems with our economy and unemployment. We have countless foreclosures and short sales happening this very minute, despite some of the lowest interest rates in history. People ought to be flooding into the market, yet they’re not.

So while the news coming out of this article may still be considered positive by some, I’m going to temper my enthusiasm for the time being until a few more of these come across my desk. I’d advise you to do the same.

Stop Foreclosure in Hawaii

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How many homeowners in America today are underwater and facing foreclosure? Last I checked, it was in the millions. What does this mean for you? It means you are not alone in your hardship.

There is no longer a stigma associated with foreclosure. Instead, the American people, myself included, know that sometimes life kicks us in the gut and it’s okay to ask for a little help. There is help for you during this time of need. All you have to do is ask. Let me tell you how it works.

Avoid Foreclosure By Selling Your Hawaii House for Cash

A foreclosure is going to have a long lasting affect on your credit. It could take up to 10 years before you are able to buy a home again, not to mention the costs of everything else going up because of bad credit.

Selling your home to an investor for cash can mitigate the effects of your financial hardship. There are no realtor commissions involved so you can get more out of your sale. You don’t have to put your home on the market and let potential buyers stomp around your house. Selling your home to an investor is fast, easy, and will give you the relief you need to avoid a foreclosure.

Even if your home needs repairs or isn’t in the greatest condition, that’s not a problem. You don’t have to spend time marketing your home, keeping it in showing condition or allowing strangers inside.

Getting Started With Selling Your Hawaii House For Cash

First of all, visit the website: Sell Your Hawaii House for Cash. Just enter your name and contact information and we will be in touch immediately about how we can help you. This isn’t some late night infomercial. We are a real company with real solutions here in Hawaii.

Once you’ve decided you’re interested in our offer, we can move very quickly to get you out of your home and on with your life. Unlike traditional real estate transactions that are dependent on bank approval, we can finalize a transaction in days, not weeks.

You won’t have to worry about a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan causing you to go into foreclosure. We have guaranteed funds available today. Don’t wait until it’s too late. Take action now and get out from under the pressures of a foreclosure.

Work With an Investor to Negotiate Your Short Sale

Some investors, like me and my partners, are experienced at negotiating short sales for homeowners facing foreclosure. Instead of just listing it on the MLS and hoping someone comes along and scoops it up while the bank continues on its path of taking your home, we have unique and extremely effective, proactive methods of getting the banks to agree to a short sale instead of the foreclosure, all at no cost to the homeowner. This is often the best option for keeping that foreclosure off your credit history and moving on with your life. Remember, it’s very costly for the banks to foreclosure — investors trained in this process can help the banks see that a short sale is often in their best interest.

Remember, until the day your house gets sold at auction:

You Still Have Options!

Staying Smart in a Flat Hawaii Real Estate Market

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Remember not too long ago when the advice coming out of the air, ground, woodwork and anywhere else was to buy as big a house as you can afford? How well are those advice-takers faring these days? Not too well. How do we know? One only needs to look at the number of foreclosures and loan modifications to know that most people bit off way more than they could chew. It’s not really their fault — those words of ‘wisdom’ were rained down upon the populace like confetti at a parade. It was almost impossible to ignore.

But now we find ourselves in somewhat of an opposite yet similar situation. Interest rates are at record lows and there are deals to be had left and right. Replace the boom of 6-8 years ago with the flat, and you still have people wondering how much house they should afford. The answer is simply this:

As much Hawaii real estate as ONLY YOU can afford.

Yes, there are deals out there and it may be tempting to think the market can only go up and therefore this is your once in a lifetime chance at a goldmine. Is this true? Could be! Nobody really knows, and that’s what matters. The opportunity to buy a house, at any size, doesn’t mean your other obligations go away. You still have to budget for food, education, taxes, leisure, utilities, car expenses and everything else. Your potential mortgage still must fit in the fabric of your overall financial life. If you maintain this holistic, long-term vision, then you may (or may not) miss an opportunity to hit a financial home run, but you’ll also go a long way in avoiding having your home auctioned off at foreclosure at the county courthouse while maintaining a greater peace of mind for you and your family.